UFC Betting Preview and Prediction l Conor McGregor vs. Khabib Nurmagomedov

Tipped as the fight of the year, Conor McGregor vs. Khabib Nurmagomedov is scheduled to headline UFC 229, a main card set for Sunday 7th October, 2018, in Las Vegas, Nevada. We’ve put together a hit-list of possible outcomes for this lightweight title contest and review the odds of them happening, as well as putting out our own fight prediction.


McGregor vs. Nurmagomedov: Tale of the Tape


21-3-0            Pro record      26-0-0

30                   Age                  29

69 in               Height             70 in

155 lbs           Weight            155 lbs

74 in               Reach              70 in


Conor McGregor vs. Khabib Nurmagedov Bet Markets


To win outright


Bookmakers are tipping Khabib to beat Conor, that’s the bottom line. Not a popular one in the mixed martial arts community, but consistent across all major betting sites. Seldom do these experts get it wrong if you’re looking for the safe bet then place a sake on the Russian to win outright.


But the big question is: will Nurmagodemov make weight?


McGregor, perhaps for the first time since facing Jose Aldo in their first fight, goes into this UFC main event as the underdog. Place £10, win double – a tempting offer for even the most shrewd punters amongst us. The Irishman doesn’t scare easily and even with two years away from the Octagon you can assume his form and fitness have not deteriorated.


Outright winner Bet 365 Sky Bet Ladbrokes William Hill Marathon Bet Betfair Paddy Power Unibet Coral Betfred
Khabib Nurmagomedov 10/17 8/13 4/7 5/9 4/6 8/13 11/20 3/5 8/13
Conor McGregor 7/5 5/4 11/8 8/5 6/5 6/5 29/20 11/8 5/4


Method of victory


If you’re backing Conor McGregor to win then it’s worth exploring how the former champion will mage it. The win method with the largest return is McGregor to edge it by a decision – punters can steal a whopping 12 / 1 with the bookies. Alternatively, Conor McGregor to knock out Khabib is shorter at 2/1, which gives little more than an outright win but is a higher risk move.


Options for how Khabib wins are tied three ways: victory by submission, TKO/KO, or decision each sit as around 3/1. Although there’s very little in it, common sense suggests that the Russian will be enforcing a ground-and-pound gameplan therefore go with a submission finish. We can’t see Khabib trading blows in a stand-up strategy as this is McGregor’s territory.


Method of victory Bet 365 Sky Bet Ladbrokes William Hill Marathon Bet Betfair Paddy Power Unibet Coral Betfred
Conor McGregor by KO / TKO or disqualification 15/8 2 17/10 17/10 13/8
Khabib Nurmagomedov by submission 3 10/3 11/4 11/4 9/4
Khabib Nurmagomedov by decision or technical decision 4 9/2 7/2 7/2 7/2 4
Khabib Nurmagomedov by KO, TKO or disqualification 3 3 4 7/2 4
Conor McGregor by decision or technical decision 10 8 8 12 11 7


Fight to go the distance


All bookmakers are in agreement that this main event goes the distance, according to the stats. You’ll get 2/1 for backing this market, or the reverse odds for betting against it.


Khabib made a point of pushing his opponents to five rounds in his last two fights so we know stamina will be no issue for him. McGregor, on the other hand, is notorious for gassing out as the fight goes on – think Diaz and Mayweather for example. Regardless of who comes out on top, it makes sense to opt for the fight not to hit the 25 minute-mark for a reasonable return.


Will fight go the distance Bet 365 Sky Bet Ladbrokes William Hill Marathon Bet Betfair Paddy Power Unibet Coral Betfred
No 2/7 2/7 4/17 1/5 1/4
Yes 5/2 11/4 13/5 13/5 11/4


McGregor vs. Nurmagomedov Prediction


All the signs point to Khabib leaving the Octagon with his record intact, but 2018 is the year of the upset: Cormier defeating Stipe, the biggest of them all. We’re going to stick our neck on the line and tip Conor for the win. Reason being… Khabib hasn’t faced anyone with the Irishman’s unorthodox style and will be underestimating the left hand that has put both champions and challengers at 155 lbs to sleep.


Khabib has been rocked before. And he’s easy to hit. But Conor needs a KO early on or he struggles to dominate the remainder of the fight.


Conor McGregor to win by KO/TKO

Leave a Reply