George Groves vs. Callum Smith Predictions, Betting Odds & Picks

For the second time in three months the World Boxing Super Series delivers a top seeded tournament final in George Groves vs. Callum Smith. The two British boxers clash for Groves’ WBA super-middleweight title, with the winner also being awarded the Muhammad Ali Trophy.

Having postponed the fight due to a dislocated shoulder sustained in his semi-final victory over Chris Eubank Jr, Groves is now said to be 100% fit and ready to defend his strap against Smith, who he meets for the first time in his professional boxing career.

In this fight preview we’ll be reviewing the form and betting markets for both athletes as well as putting our necks on the line with our prediction. On to the tale of the tape.


Groves vs. Smith Tale of the Tape

George Grovesvs.Callum Smith
United KingdomBirthplaceUnited Kingdom
182 cmHeight191 cm
183 cmReach190 cm
65KO %71
W, W, W, W, WLast five fightsW, W, W, W, W


Groves vs. Smith Betting Markets

Who’s your money on? We’ve analysed the most popular betting markets from 10 of the leading betting platforms to find the bets that can earn you a few bucks. This is not an endorsement nor an affiliate promo. Always gamble responsibly.

George Groves to win outright @ 8/11 > Low risk bet

St George is poised to come out on top according to the majority of the bookmakers at this stage of the event. Odds have shortened against him winning as only last week both he and Smith were sitting at evens. Why back the South Londoner to win? Groves brings bags of experience with him into this tournament final, having won 28 of his 31 pro bouts. The 30-year-old is in the peak of his career with a fight camp that keeps him both grounded and motivated in major events. He and trainer Shane McGuigan shrugged of the threat of Eubank Jr as if they had written the script before a punch had landed. That level of confidence is surely worth backing at these odds.

Callum Smith to win outright @ 11/10 > Low risk bet

You have to feel for Smith in waiting this long for a shot at a world super middleweight crown. Even fellow Scouser Rocky Fielding, whom he knocked out earlier in his career, is now in possession of a title. That desire to dislodge Groves as the main man in the 168 lbs division and begin a potentially triumphant reign could be enough in itself for Mundo to win this weekend. But the lad has skills to get the job done too; 24 fights after turning pro and zero losses. He may be the underdog but worth backing as this fight could go either way.

George Groves to win by KO/TKO @ 3/1 > High risk bet

The odds look sweet but too good to be true for many a reason. How fit really is Groves after a long layoff and does he fancy his chances of risking another shoulder injury? Only one man knows the answer to those questions but in going up against a taller guy with a longer reach in these circumstances, we can’t put faith in this market.

Callum Smith to win by KO/TKO @ 10/3 > High risk bet

Mundo might be a rangy fighter but his 71% KO record speaks for itself. He’s floored 17 of his 24 opponents which makes for impressive reading at domestic level. Since entering the World Boxing Super Series he has played a more cautious game and advanced to the final on decision wins. Groves is a smart mover inside the rig and we expect the champ to evade any devastating power punches in that Smith may throw his way.

Fight to go the distance @ 4/7 > Low risk bet

Both fighters have a huge amount to lose going into this contest. For Groves, a defeat means questioning whether he’s still running with the big dogs of the super middleweight division. Both Ebank Jr and Degale will be itching for a rematch, which are fights he will have to consider to reenergise his campaign.

Smith’s career is in the ascendancy and winning against Groves will be the statement needed to prove he is deserving of a WBA title. Anything but a victory will knock his confidence for six and ultimately derail his path to glory for at least another 6-12 months.


Our Prediction

If it wasn’t for Groves’ shoulder aggravation then we would have tipped him to steal this fight on points. We appreciate his knack for styling out a win over 12 rounds without absorbing unnecessary damage. But how much does Smith want the trophy and status? Given that there’s literally nothing in this in terms of quality surely, the odds should favour the challenger based on youth, fitness and size difference. Call it a passing of the torch or whatever cliche floats your boat, our money is on the fight going the full distance; we’re backing the lad from Liverpool to secure a points victory.

How to Watch: When, Where and What Channel?

George Groves vs. Callum Smith takes place on Friday, September 28. The bout is happening overseas at the King Abdullah Sports City in Jeddah, in Saudi Arabia, however, the fight time has been brought forward to appease UK viewers. Expect the ring walks to happen at around 9pm GMT.

If you’re tuning in online or via TV you’ll need to subscribe to the ITV pay-per-view package for full access. Alternatively, boxing streaming platforms may be available on the web – stream at your own risk as high viewing quality is never guaranteed.

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