This fight might be playing out as the plan B to Amir Khan vs. Kell Brook there’s still scope for fireworks when the boy from Bolton takes on Colombian journeyman Samuel Vargas this weekend at the Birmingham Arena. Like many, we’re tipping King Khan to win by stoppage so let’s get into the betting tips and preview to speculate what drama may follow.
But first, here’s the tale of the tape.
|Amir Khan||vs.||Samuel Vargas|
Khan vs. Vargas Betting Odds
It has to be Khan, doesn’t it? Those who run on superstition might remember that the Bolton lad’s only loss on British soil happened this week exactly 10 years ago. So anything is possible. But miracles aside, let’s size up this bout logically.
Khan made quick work of Phil Lo Greco in May this year with some seriously rapid punches, which answers critics who question whether his hands still possess his trademark speed. Others who doubt his winning mentality should remember that the former champion went four years unbeaten between the KO’s from Danny Garcia and Canelo Alvarez respectably.
Vargas on the other hand is at long odds with the bookmakers to defeat the Englishman in Birmingham. Despite stringing together 29 wins with a 41% KO ratio, the betting gods simply don’t fancy his chances of taking out Khan. He too bears the scars of a Danny Garcia KO, one of three black marks in his otherwise colourful and prosperous career.
Making the journey from Canada where he now resides, fighting in front of a packed British crowd could add to the pressure of fighting Khan on a comeback trail.
|To win outright||Khan||Vargas||Draw|
Khan to win by KO/TKO
If not a clean knockout then highly likely a technical intervention from the ref is where our money is going. Backing the Brit to finish the fight in either fashion doesn’t inspire us to lump on purely because it’s expected by the bookmakers, hence the short odds.
The post-Celebrity Jungle Khan seems like his old self so much more than he did in the tough fights leading up to his career break. A quick disposal of Vargas will spur him on to prepare for the mega payday and grudge match with Kell Brook.
|Method of victory||Khan KO/TKO||Khan decision|
Vargas to win by KO/TKO
With a mere 41% KO ratio, it’s no wonder that the betting odds for Samuel Vargas to KO King Khan are through the roof. Even at 12/1, don’t be drawn into that trap. Some may recite the tired adage that Amir Khan is a “chinny” fighter, his jaw is there for the taking and will flop if the punch connects to justify this outcome.
But that statement is not a strong enough case for suggesting the former champion is at risk of a KO, in this fight against a fighter at Vargas’ level. Khan has only been rocked three times in his pro career – by credible guys in Canelo, Garcia and Presscott.
|Method of victory||Vargas KO/TKO||Vargas decision|
Khan vs. Vargas Prediction – Khan by KO/ TKO
The odds are tilted towards Khan for a reason, and if it’s not abundantly clear so far, here it is again… don’t waste a bet on Khan (too short) or Vargas (too risky) to win outright. The best case scenario is for a group round bet to predict at which stage the fight will end.
If Khan wakes up to the fact he needs rounds to compete with the elite fights of the welterweight division then the bout could go further if only under the guise of his strategy. We saw recently with Tyson Fury that stretching out an otherwise straightforward win over the entirety of the fight can build confidence, whilst appease critics who questioned his stamina level. It’s a long-shot all the same and a KO seems more plausible.